Electronic components procurement and market forecast in June 2022

In June, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI was 52.2%, down 0.1% from the previous month. On the whole, although the global manufacturing PMI index has continued to......

1. Global manufacturing continues to fall, uncertainties increase

   In June, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI was 52.2%, down 0.1% from the previous month. On the whole, although the global manufacturing PMI index has continued to fall since the beginning of this year, the overall reading in the 50-53 range still shows that the growth momentum of the global manufacturing industry is still expanding in the middle of the year. However, under the influence of high inflation and policy tightening, the terminal demand has gradually declined. It is expected that the momentum of global economic recovery will tend to decline in the second half of the year.

   In terms of countries, manufacturing PMIs in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States continued to decline in June, and the imbalance in the global economic recovery was exacerbated. Inflationary pressures that continue to heat up, geopolitical conflicts that have not improved, and the impact of repeated epidemics continue to deplete the momentum of global economic recovery.

To sum up, the constant balance between economic recovery and fighting inflation and epidemic prevention and control has become a common problem faced by all countries in the world. The economic recovery expectations of the world's major economic institutions continued to weaken. The United Nations "World Economic Situation and Prospects" report lowered the global economic growth forecast in 2022 from 4.0% at the beginning of the year to 3.1%. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) halved its forecast for global GDP growth in 2022, from 4.6% to 2.3%.

2. China's manufacturing boom rises, recovery accelerates

   In June, China's manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.6% month-on-month, returning to above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry resumed expansion.

   As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy has been implemented at an accelerated pace. The manufacturing industry has returned to the expansion range after contracting for three consecutive months. The supply and demand cycle has recovered significantly, especially in June, the production index was even slightly stronger than Seasonal average over the past five years.

   On the whole, the production and operation of the manufacturing industry is still in the early stage of recovery. Considering that the number of industries that are recovering is expected to increase further, business operations are expected to be bright and optimistic, and transportation and logistics conditions are further improved, it is expected that the follow-up PMI will still have upward momentum. In addition, the price of industrial products will continue to rise. The month-on-month decline will also support the recovery of the middle and lower reaches and small enterprises to a certain extent.

3. The global semiconductor market continues to be hot, and the semiconductor index has fallen sharply

   According to the latest statistics, the global semiconductor industry sales in April 2022 were US$50.9 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 21.1% compared with the US$42 billion in the same period last year. The market maintains a sustained and strong growth trend.

   In June, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell sharply by 16.16%, especially in the past week, which fell by more than 5.79%. The index fell sharply this month. Major markets are worried that the chip industry will repeat the tragic situation of oversupply in 2018, and their assessment of the market outlook is relatively conservative.

   From the perspective of the Chinese market, in June, the semiconductor (SW) industry index rose by 8.94%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 16.21%. Overall, it reflects the gradual release of the market's pessimism about chips, and the deterioration of risk sentiment in the chip industry.